Consumer Price Index Summary

 

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until

8:30 a.m. (ET) Wednesday, April 12, 2023 USDL-23-0674

Technical information: (202) 691-7000 * cpi_info@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cpi

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov

 

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - MARCH 2023

 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in March on a seasonally

adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported

today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

 

The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase. This more

than offset a decline in the energy index, which decreased 3.5 percent over the month as all major

energy component indexes declined. The food index was unchanged in March with the food at home index

falling 0.3 percent.

 

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in March, after rising 0.5 percent in

February. Indexes which increased in March include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, airline fares,

household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles. The index for medical care and the index for

used cars and trucks were among those that decreased over the month.

 

The all items index increased 5.0 percent for the 12 months ending March; this was the smallest 12-month

increase since the period ending May 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 5.6 percent

over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 6.4 percent for the 12 months ending March, and the

food index increased 8.5 percent over the last year.

 

 

 

	Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month							Un- adjusted 12-mos. ended Mar. 2023
	Sep. 2022	Oct. 2022	Nov. 2022	Dec. 2022	Jan. 2023	Feb. 2023	Mar. 2023
All items	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.1	5.0
Food	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.0	8.5
Food at home	0.7	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3	-0.3	8.4
Food away from home(1)	0.9	0.9	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.6	8.8
Energy	-1.7	1.7	-1.4	-3.1	2.0	-0.6	-3.5	-6.4
Energy commodities	-4.1	3.7	-2.1	-7.2	1.9	0.5	-4.6	-17.0
Gasoline (all types)	-4.2	3.4	-2.3	-7.0	2.4	1.0	-4.6	-17.4
Fuel oil(1)	-2.7	19.8	1.7	-16.6	-1.2	-7.9	-4.0	-14.2
Energy services	1.2	-0.7	-0.6	1.9	2.1	-1.7	-2.3	9.2
Electricity	0.8	0.5	0.5	1.3	0.5	0.5	-0.7	10.2
Utility (piped) gas service	2.2	-3.7	-3.4	3.5	6.7	-8.0	-7.1	5.5
All items less food and energy	0.6	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.4	5.6
Commodities less food and energy commodities	0.0	-0.1	-0.2	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.2	1.5
New vehicles	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.2	0.4	6.1
Used cars and trucks	-1.1	-1.7	-2.0	-2.0	-1.9	-2.8	-0.9	-11.2
Apparel	0.0	-0.2	0.1	0.2	0.8	0.8	0.3	3.3
Medical care commodities(1)	-0.1	0.0	0.2	0.1	1.1	0.1	0.6	3.6
Services less energy services	0.8	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.4	7.1
Shelter	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.8	0.7	0.8	0.6	8.2
Transportation services	1.9	0.6	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.1	1.4	13.9
Medical care services	0.8	-0.4	-0.5	0.3	-0.7	-0.7	-0.5	1.0
Footnotes (1) Not seasonally adjusted.

 

Food

 

The food index was unchanged in March. The food at home index fell 0.3 percent over the month, the first

decline in that index since September 2020. Three of the six major grocery store food group indexes

decreased over the month. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs decreased 1.4 percent in March as

the index for eggs fell 10.9 percent. The fruits and vegetables index declined 1.3 percent over the

month, and the dairy and related products index decreased 0.1 percent.

 

In contrast, the index for other food at home rose 0.4 percent in March, following a 0.3-percent

increase the previous month. The cereals and bakery products index increased 0.6 percent over the month,

and the nonalcoholic beverages index rose 0.2 percent.

 

The food away from home index rose 0.6 percent in March, as it did in the previous 2 months. The index

for full service meals increased 0.7 percent over the month and the index for limited service meals

increased 0.5 percent.

 

The food at home index rose 8.4 percent over the last 12 months. The index for cereals and bakery

products rose 13.6 percent over the 12 months ending in March. The remaining major grocery store food

groups posted increases ranging from 2.5 percent (fruits and vegetables) to 11.3 percent (nonalcoholic

beverages).

 

The index for food away from home rose 8.8 percent over the last year. The index for full service meals

rose 8.0 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for limited service meals rose 7.9 percent over

the same period.

 

Energy

 

The energy index fell 3.5 percent in March after decreasing 0.6 percent in February. The gasoline index

decreased 4.6 percent in March, following a 1.0-percent increase in the previous month. (Before seasonal

adjustment, gasoline prices rose 1.0 percent in March.) The natural gas index decreased 7.1 percent over

the month, following an 8.0-percent decline in February. The index for electricity decreased 0.7 percent

in March, the largest decline in that index since January 2021.

 

The energy index fell 6.4 percent over the past 12 months. The gasoline index decreased 17.4 percent

over the last 12 months, while the fuel oil index fell 14.2 percent over the span. In contrast, the

index for electricity rose 10.2 percent over the last year, and the index for natural gas increased 5.5

percent over the same period.

 

All items less food and energy

 

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in March after rising 0.5 percent in

February. The shelter index increased 0.6 percent over the month after rising 0.8 percent in February.

The index for rent and the index for owners' equivalent rent both rose 0.5 percent in March following

larger increases in the previous month. The index for lodging away from home increased 2.7 percent in

March.

 

The shelter index was the dominant factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food

and energy. Among the other indexes that rose in March was the index for motor vehicle insurance, which

increased 1.2 percent, and the index for airline fares which increased 4.0 percent. The indexes for

household furnishings and operations, new vehicles, education, and apparel also increased in March. In

contrast, the index for used cars and trucks fell 0.9 percent in March, continuing a recent downward

trend.

 

The medical care index fell 0.3 percent in March, after falling 0.5 percent in February. The index for

hospital services fell 0.4 percent over the month, after being unchanged in February. The index for

physicians' services continued to decline, falling 0.2 percent after declining 0.5 percent in February.

The prescription drugs index increased 0.1 percent in March.

 

The index for all items less food and energy rose 5.6 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index

increased 8.2 percent over the last year, accounting for over 60 percent of the total increase in all

items less food and energy. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor

vehicle insurance (+15.0 percent), household furnishings and operations (+5.6 percent), recreation (+4.8

percent), and new vehicles (+6.1 percent).

 

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 5.0 percent over the last 12 months

to an index level of 301.836 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent prior to

seasonal adjustment.

 

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 4.5 percent over

the last 12 months to an index level of 296.021 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.3

percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

 

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 5.1 percent over the last

12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please

note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.

_______________

The Consumer Price Index for April 2023 is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, May 10, 2023, at 8:30a.m. (ET).

 

Technical Note

 

Brief Explanation of the CPI

 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services.

The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all urban consumers and urban

wage earners and clerical workers. The all urban consumer group represents over 90 percent of the

total U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of urban or

metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the poor, the unemployed, and retired

people, as well as urban wage earners and clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending

patterns of people living in rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces,

and those in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation for all urban

consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

and the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U).

 

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is based on the

expenditures of households included in the CPI-U definition that meet two requirements: more than

one-half of the household's income must come from clerical or wage occupations, and at least one of

the household's earners must have been employed for at least 37 weeks during the previous 12 months.

The CPI-W population represents approximately 30 percent of the total U.S. population and is a subset

of the CPI-U population.

 

The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors' and dentists'

services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are

collected each month in 75 urban areas across the country from about 6,000 housing units and

approximately 22,000 retail establishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling

stations, and other types of stores and service establishments). All taxes directly associated with

the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are

obtained every month in all 75 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected

every month in the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most

goods and services are obtained by personal visit, telephone call, or web collection by the Bureau's

trained representatives.

 

In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are aggregated using

weights, which represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local

data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes are

also published by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and

population-size classes, and for 23 selected local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences in

the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since

the base period. For the C-CPI-U, data are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W are

considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to three

subsequent quarterly revisions.

 

The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the CPI-U and the CPI-W,

the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals

100. An increase of 7 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown as 107.000. Alternatively,

that relationship can also be expressed as the price of a base period market basket of goods and

services rising from $100 to $107.

 

Sampling Error in the CPI

 

The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is based upon a sample

of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates

of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month, and 12-month percent change standard errors annually for the CPI-U.

These standard error estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing.

For example, the estimated standard error of the 1-month percent change is 0.03 percent for the U.S.

all items CPI. This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all retail prices using

the same methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95 percent of these

estimates will be within 0.06 percent of the 1-month percentage change based on all retail prices.

For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are 95 percent confident

that the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall between 0.14 and 0.26 percent.

For the latest data, including information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see

www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/variance-estimates/home.htm.

 

Calculating Index Changes

 

Movements of the indexes from 1 month to another are usually expressed as percent changes rather than

changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in

relation to its base period, while percent changes are not. The following table shows an example of

using index values to calculate percent changes:

 

Item A Item B Item C

Year I 112.500 225.000 110.000

Year II 121.500 243.000 128.000

Change in index points 9.000 18.000 18.000

Percent change 9.0/112.500 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/225.000 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/110.000 x 100 = 16.4

 

Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) program produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data.

Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal

adjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new factors are used to revise the

previous 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The factors are available at

www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/seasonal-adjustment/seasonal-factors-2023.xlsx.

 

For more information on data revision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal Adjustment at

www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/questions-and-answers.htm

and the Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment Methodological Changes at

www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/timeline-seasonal-adjustment-methodology-changes.htm.

 

How to Use Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

 

For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred

since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same

magnitude every year-such as price movements resulting from weather events, production cycles, model

changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows data users to focus on changes that are not typical for

the time of year.

 

The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay.

Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract

agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before

adjustment for seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted data in

escalation agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised annually.

 

Intervention Analysis

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment (IASA) for some CPI

series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal pattern of

price change. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process by which the distortions caused

by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal

factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately represent the seasonal pattern, are

then applied to the unadjusted data.

 

For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of the 2009

return to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008. Retaining this outlier data

during seasonal factor calculation would distort the computation of the seasonal portion of the time

series data for motor fuel, so it was estimated and removed from the data prior to seasonal adjustment.

Following that, seasonal factors were calculated based on this "prior adjusted" data. These seasonal

factors represent a clearer picture of the seasonal pattern in the data. The last step is for motor

fuel seasonal factors to be applied to the unadjusted data.

 

For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2023, BLS adjusted 57 series using intervention

analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels and vehicles.

 

Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes

 

Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject to

revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI calculate

new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5 years of data.

Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to be final and not subject

to revision. For January 2023, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted indexes for 2018 to

2022 were calculated and published. For series which are directly adjusted using the Census

X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal factors for 2022 will be applied to data

for 2023 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2023 indexes. Series which are indirectly seasonally

adjusted by summing seasonally adjusted component series have seasonal factors which are derived and

are therefore not available in advance.

 

Determining Seasonal Status

 

Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria.

Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its status from "not

seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the 81 components of the U.S.

city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not

seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent

series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that period will not be

changed. For 2023, 37 of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index are not seasonally

adjusted.

 

Contact Information

 

For additional information about the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi or contact the CPI Information and

Analysis Section at 202-691-7000 or cpi_info@bls.gov.

 

For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit

www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm